The forecasts in this section are derived from the KION Group’s multiple-year market, business and financial plan, which is based on certain assumptions. Market planning takes into account macroeconomic and industry-specific performance, which is described below. Business planning and financial planning are based on expected market performance, but also draw on other assumptions, such as those relating to changes in the cost of materials, the KION Group’s ability to command higher prices from customers and movements in exchange rates.
Expected macroeconomic conditions
In the opinion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the pace of global economic growth will pick up slightly in 2014. The global economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3.7 per cent and the eurozone at 1.0 per cent. The economic situation in emerging markets is stabilising, and moderate growth is anticipated in those countries. The forecast for economic conditions is based on the assumption that the eurozone will continue to stabilise, monetary policy will become increasingly more restrictive and be adjusted to reflect the faster pace of growth, and fiscal policy will remain cautious. The Chinese government is not expected to launch any major growth initiatives.
Expected sectoral conditions
The overall market for industrial trucks will continue to depend heavily on economic conditions in key sales markets, with the level of capital investment and the growth in global trade being particularly crucial. In 2013, the global market for industrial trucks expanded by around 7 per cent, reaching a record level of more than one million new trucks ordered. This was primarily driven by a recovery of demand in China and North America. Given the positive economic prospects and more optimistic investment climate, the KION Group anticipates a further increase, albeit moderate, in the worldwide market volume in 2014. The major driving forces are likely to be the further stabilisation of demand in western Europe, a sustained uptrend in North America and growth in fast-growing Asian and eastern European markets.
Market expectations are also positive over the longer-term perspective. Based on current macroeconomic forecasts and in view of the rise in global trade volumes, the KION Group predicts an average annual growth rate (in units) of about 4 per cent for the global market over the next few years and does not expect there to be significant changes in the proportion of total revenue generated by each product segment.